Remember the Asian Crisis of 97..Do not miss the boat again!!!

Mel
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15 years 6 months ago - 15 years 6 months ago #436 by Mel

Replied by Mel on topic Re:Remember the Asian Crisis of 97..Do not miss the boat again!!!

U score one, Gary! with the dow up 500 pts last night, and Asian markets on the rebound this morning, your call to buy yesterday wld hv been profitable for those who bought in the morning. medium term - well, only time can tell. for me, i prefer to stay out still.... but next plunge if the next bailout effort fails, maybe i will put some $ on the table. hahhahahaha..

Last edit: 15 years 6 months ago by Mel.

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Gary Teh
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15 years 6 months ago #437 by Gary Teh

Replied by Gary Teh on topic Re:Remember the Asian Crisis of 97..Do not miss the boat again!!!

again did not mean to time the market...was just lucky... the more important call is what will the individual stock price be in 5 years especially those that have been beaten down to the pulp...those with a moat and cash rich. Sad to say however that most of them still reside in the US and not here in S\'pore. That is why longer term I\'m a long term bull for the United States barring the politics. They still hold the lead for technology and innovation. Same story down there...a lot of great small caps (great businesses) with ridiculous valuations.... As I said guys, buy in small lots, don;t get greedy (easier said than done...I do get greedy when blood is running on the streets).

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MacGyver
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15 years 6 months ago #438 by MacGyver

Replied by MacGyver on topic Re:Remember the Asian Crisis of 97..Do not miss the boat again!!!

Honestly, I would avoid all Shipping Trusts and REITs. These type of assets classes that depend on leverage would not be the priority list of the investors. If you read the article on THE EDGE last week, you will realize that these trusts are choosing to pay in units rather than in cash. If the mkt does not turn for the better sooner, some of these trusts may not survive the winter. Regards

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Gary Teh
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15 years 6 months ago #442 by Gary Teh

Replied by Gary Teh on topic Re:Remember the Asian Crisis of 97..Do not miss the boat again!!!

Hi, I would not go to the extreme of totally avoiding them. Right now with the turmoil, these trust offers visibility and with spopnsors behind them, they are really solid plus offers a constant stream of dividend out of cash flow. Debt is bad only if it is not manage well. In spite of all the doom and gloom about the credit crunch, most if not all the trust will be able to secure (re)financing. Long term debt is match against long term assets with very visible cash revenue stream. The same goes for MIIF which has taken a severe beating for the the same reasons plus it\'s affiliation with their distress parent investment bank. However, that is only speculation and it is currently yielding north of 18% which is a historical high. Their assets are all infrastructure and with very big moats. REIT\'s, MLPs, Shipping trust should always form part of your diversification portfolio.

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Dongdaemun
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15 years 6 months ago - 15 years 6 months ago #448 by Dongdaemun

Replied by Dongdaemun on topic Re:Remember the Asian Crisis of 97..Do not miss the boat again!!!

Reits look safe & tempting with some of them offering historical yields in the double digits, but my worry is that fixed deposit rates will go up which will make the yield on Reits look less tempting. also, the cost of borrowing for Reits is going up, which means less profit to share for unit holders. which Reits are highly geared, anyone?

Last edit: 15 years 6 months ago by Dongdaemun.

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MacGyver
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15 years 6 months ago #455 by MacGyver

Replied by MacGyver on topic Re:Remember the Asian Crisis of 97..Do not miss the boat again!!!

I believe what happened to Thailand in the 97 Crisis is happening in US now.. only that this crisis is probably 10x larger. More banks will die, in US and Europe and that will surely affect the financing in Asia... Some companies listed in SGX have already felt the pain.. Look at Westech and Guangzhao. I believe more will follow. Those coys with thin margins, high gearing, long cash conversion cycles will probably not survive this harsh winter. :huh: :huh: :huh: :blink: :huh:

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