S-Chips selldown

Gary Teh
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15 years 2 months ago #1238 by Gary Teh

Replied by Gary Teh on topic Re:S-Chips selldown

my concern is their balance sheet with thei cash level reduce below the amount required to redeem the bonds.

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sean.ng
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15 years 2 months ago #1240 by sean.ng

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what difference would it have made? its price has dropped to beyond recognition & beyond. All r going down. Maybe STI to reach 1,200 in no time to come.

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Gary Teh
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15 years 2 months ago #1241 by Gary Teh

Replied by Gary Teh on topic Re:S-Chips selldown

Hi Sean, I wish I had better words for you but it seems like the whole market is running like chickens with their heads cut off. As much as I remind myself to be calm and think about the 5 year target it is very difficult to do so. Again easier said than done. I want to real honest here that I have as much fear as everyone out there so I am even more active now selling and buying or repositioning my stocks for the eventual upturn. The upturn will come but of course the question on everyone\'s mind is..when??? Celestial is has several big strikes against it now. 1. Cash level - CB issue 2. Corporate governence - no communication as to how they are dealing with the CB issue - investors do not like uncertainty and silence makes it worse. 3. S- Chips - hated sector 4. Market weakness 5. Bad timing of capex investment and also diversifying outside their sphere of expertise - bio diesel. 6. CFO resign - it\'s gonna get worse. They have big positives going for them. 1. Balance sheet is relatively good apart from the CB issue - If the CB issue is resolved then the balance sheet is A1. 2. FPE is ridiculously low 3. I like the business and the sector they\'re in. All in all it\'s about uncertainty and all the positives vanishes in thin air and fear takes over. Again the issue that compounds it is the silence on part of management.

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sean.ng
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15 years 2 months ago #1242 by sean.ng

Replied by sean.ng on topic Re:S-Chips selldown

maybe the management decides that silence is the best medicine for now? seems no matter what the co announces or says, it will still go down. Guess its a case of u like the co\'s business, u will ride thru with it, be it down or up? i am all committed in early, and no way to make any adjustments now, looks like if i sell i will bear heavy losses, and to buy after that looks like incurring even more losses if the mkt goes halved again. Only way for me may be to just sit tight & hopes for the best, that the portfolio can ride the tide, eventually balances itself out to not so bad when the upturn comes. Otherwise, it will just have to be a lesson for me. China Hongxing & others have seen their prices plummet. Is it because of debt issues? Just like many of the S-chips that have fallen? I heard that they are selling their shoes at half prices to raise money, or did i get the wrong news?

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Gary Teh
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15 years 2 months ago #1243 by Gary Teh

Replied by Gary Teh on topic Re:S-Chips selldown

It is a contagion effect on all the S-Chips. even a company as solid as China Milk is still being sold down but at small volumes. Rebalancing portfolio is normal and even WB sold stocks at a huge loss (sold stocks at PE 3 to buy stocks at PE 2). Again if you do read my thread elsewhere you may have to take a hit but do not exit the market then it will be a permanent loss. Hongxing at 0.09 is absolutely silly and funds are buying hand over fist. Yes some funds are selling probably caused by redemption. If Hongxing is selling off shoes at 50% discount that is a normal practice...even Nike does it to get rid of old stocks. I do not see the need to raise money but maybe the retailers that owe them money have to do so to pare down their \'loans\' given by Hongxing. As to silence..it adds to mystery...the default is that they do not say anything becoz they have nothing good to say. You can sell off Celestial and buy Hongxing. I see a stronger floor for Hongxing compared to Celestial. At least thee is no cash calls or fears of default. For Hongxing to get back to 0.20 is much easier than Celestail to return to 0.34 which is both a 110% jump from current levels if the CB issue is not resolved even if the overall market recovers which it will eventually. I took a BIG loss 0.19 exit on my personal portfolio as I needed the cash to buy another stock in the US which has taken a huge beating. Again I am always looking at the overall portfolio...some I like more than others and if my favourite company drops more in percentage terms compared to the ones that I like the least (in comparison..I still like them all) then I\'ll rebalance as I look at the earnings potential. I may actually end up with 2-4 stocks if I keep on doing this unless I find another bargain with better fundamentals. Anyway to each to it\'s own and as long as I sharing what I think is appropriate then I\'ll leave it up to you to make your own decisions. Regardless, I wish you all the best and I\'ll see you in 2014 (I\'m sue you\'ll be a very rich man by then if you hold on to your stocks till then)

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sean.ng
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15 years 2 months ago #1244 by sean.ng

Replied by sean.ng on topic Re:S-Chips selldown

yea shall put a note here again in due time as to whether i have become a broke man or indeed a richer man, whether i would have become richer by holding on to stocks or cash instead right from the start.

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