Time to buy now as Teh Hooi Ling writes?

kennysjq
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15 years 4 months ago #772 by kennysjq

Replied by kennysjq on topic Re:Time to buy now as Teh Hooi Ling writes?

personally i feel that the global economy has already quite obviously entered into the recovery phase. what we\'re reading in the news everyday is about how unemployment is up, spending is down, export is down, trade is down. but these results are a reflection of what has already happened. indeed, their subsequent follow up statistics may display further negative movements but governments around the world are aware of how things are now and have begun to heal their economies with BIG stimulus packages, rate cuts, tax rebates and what not. let me try to picture an analogy: take it that the crisis now is equivalent to a very deep cut that is bleeding badly and our first move will be to apply first aid. but tho medication and bandage (recovery) are being used, we know that some bleeding and bruises will still be present (current situation). how long the wound takes to heal is the question mark in the equation, however if the first aid isnt recovery then i dont know what is.

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MacGyver
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15 years 4 months ago #774 by MacGyver

Replied by MacGyver on topic Re:Time to buy now as Teh Hooi Ling writes?

kennysjq, you may be just right. I went thru the figures this morning... In the past few recessions, by the time the US Central Govt announced that the country has officially entered recession, S&P would hit rock bottom!! Incredible but true! The key as you pointed out is -- How long would this recovery take? Please bear in mind that some companies\' survival are already hanging by the thread. :woohoo:

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ct.leong
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15 years 4 months ago #831 by ct.leong

Replied by ct.leong on topic Re:Time to buy now as Teh Hooi Ling writes?

insightful analysis at: www.investorguide.com/browse2.cgi?id=19392 ThereÃ¢â¬â¢s almost no good news, but the market is still up. Sometimes it just doesnÃ¢â¬â¢t make any sense. However, it could be telling us something - the recent rally could be a giant signal the worst is behind us. All the Signs of a Market Bottom A few weeks ago, we looked at the five telltale signs of a market bottom. At that time, we saw four of the five signs, but were still waiting for one more in order to start seriously considering a market bottom. The first four signs a bottom was nearing were confirmed. Investors were bailing out of mutual funds at record pace, the VIX set new highs, more than 90% of closed-end funds were trading at a discount (much higher than normal), and a perma-bear like Jeremy Grantham was turning bullish. We were just waiting on one more: the market to react positively to horrible news.

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Eagle
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15 years 4 months ago - 15 years 4 months ago #844 by Eagle

Replied by Eagle on topic Re:Time to buy now as Teh Hooi Ling writes?

\"Shares may plunge another 20% before recovering in late 2009,\" said NYU professor Nouriel Roubini on last Fri. Trough signal: 3Q08 operating incomes of S&P500 co\'s are 46% higher than net incomes. Meaning: companies using downturn to clean up balance sheets with impunity. S&P 500 operating earnings exceeded net profit by 67% during 4Q02. That was when stocks were at the lowest level since 1997. S&P 500 Index then doubled through October 2007. Caveat: Previous recession didn\'t have credit freeze. Premium for lending to companies instead of govt has risen to 8.85 percentage points (at 10.8%), compared to 2.96 at the beginning of 2008. Source: Bloomberg

Last edit: 15 years 4 months ago by Eagle.

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Dongdaemun
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14 years 11 months ago #1563 by Dongdaemun

Replied by Dongdaemun on topic Re:Time to buy now as Teh Hooi Ling writes?

it\'s interestign and educational to go back to some postings & articles. shows u where we all went wrong - i think too many people feared that the world was coming to an end. Now, at the tailend of the month of May 2009, and guess what? stocks are partying! People are drunk over the easy money they have made on stocks in the past few weeks and past few months! they didnt buy real cheap though - only the smart cool ones did and hv made a few hundred per cent.

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