ChanKitWhyePrior to his retirement, Chan Kit Whye (left) worked more than 30 years as Regional Finance Director, Financial Controller and Manager in a multinational specialty chemical business. He has played an active role in CPA (Australia) Singapore Branch, taking up positions in its Continuing Professional Development and Social Committees. Kit Whye is a Fellow of CPA Australia, CA of Institute of Singapore Chartered Accountants and CA of the Malaysian Institute of Accountants. He holds a BBus(Transport) Degree from RMIT, MAcc Degree from Charles Sturt University and MBA from Durham Business School.


SQ2.15SIA share price has risen from $10.45 on July 11 (six months ago) to $12.41 currently. Photo: Wendy Rozells/Facebook

SIA: This share has gone up too high and too fast, purely based on technicals. Fundamentally, the full-year results will only be a notch higher than previous year's. At current price, its PE is more than 30 times.

Oil price is the big influence on SIA's share price. But SIA has hedged its fuel price, therefore, in the short term, low oil prices have no impact on SIA's results.

Dividend yield is only 2.2%. As a retail investor, I won't touch this counter. Can go up fast, can also come down fast. 

See also: 
SIA: To Enjoy Lift from Lower Jet Fuel Price 
SIA: No joy yet from falling oil prices 

NOBLE GROUP: Both daily and weekly charts still show that its share price is under water. However, its full-year results, to be announced sometime late February, will look impressive when compared to previous year's.

Its 9 months year-to-date profit is 150% of its previous full-year profits. If nothing goes terribly wrong, its full-year 2014 profits will exceed 2013 by a wide margin.  Loss from discontinued operations from its agricultural unit declined by 71% or US$262 million which will help its overall year-to-date results.

Credit Suisse is the only one that votes Noble as one of the 2015 stock picks, with a price target at $1.50.

In Q3, the company gave a surprise 3.9 cts special dividend. Will year-end be another surprise?

Current PE is around 12 times with a price-to-book ratio of 1.02 when converting its NAV per share at current rate of US$1 = S$1.32. Strong support at $1.01 if it ever drop there.

I don't have Noble shares. Not intending to buy, as my strict criterion is dividend yield. If it's less than 4%, I will not buy in.

The Chairman of Noble doesn't seem to be buying in either, unlike the past. Bear in mind that China sovereign fund has divested a large part of Noble.

Noble, as with all other commodity stocks, is heavily geared and runs its business using the debt financing model. Good only when interest cost is low. 


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