Man Wah - A multi-bagger in the making?

DMG, DBS and OCBC have a consensus price target of 52 cents

In 5 years\' time Man Wah will be more than what the analysts say, assuming the business is still sound. P/E moves in cycle. Currently it is at about 5x historical P/E, in 5 years it may be at 15x when China is in focus again. (Just look at the S-chips P/E expansion and contraction since Jan 2006 for a typical range.) If Man Wah grows their earning to a moderated 20% average in the next 5 years, their earnings then will be 2.5x current earnings. Their share price will be 24 cts x 2.5 x 3 = S$1.80. If P/E expands further than 15 (say to 20), then the price will even be higher at $2.40! Is it possible? I think it is if I look back at how multi-baggers like Venture and Raffles Education are formed. Most traders will be more than happy to enjoy a 100% return on capital in the short term. The real question is how many investors can stick around to enjoy 1000% return if the scenario does play out.

China furniture makers feeling global slowdown Langi Chiang WENZHOU, CHINA Wednesday, July 30, 2008 THE furniture factories outside this manufacturing hub are eerily quiet, victims of a housing crisis half a world away in the United States that is sapping demand for everything from beds to bookcases. Wenzhou is the entrepreneurial heart of Zhejiang, a thriving eastern province that was the country\'s biggest exporter of furniture in the first five months of the year. China sells about 40 per cent of its furniture output overseas, with half its exports shipped to the United States, according to the China National Furniture Association. \"Business is poor this year, especially since May,\" said Liu Yongcheng, a senior executive at Zhejiang Adwin Furniture Co Ltd, which is running well below capacity. When order books are full, the company can churn out US$1 million ($1.4 million) worth of furniture a month. The difficulties facing Liu and countless other exporters up and down China\'s coast have grabbed the attention of the leadership in Beijing. Officials from President Hu Jintao down have carried out a series of high-profile inspection visits, including to Wenzhou, to see for themselves how the still-unfolding global credit crunch is hitting Chinese industry. Seen from Wenzhou, a major producer of garments, shoes and lighters, the picture isn\'t pretty. Liu\'s company was the first to move into an industrial estate about 90 minutes outside Wenzhou set up in 2005 to specialise in furniture manufacturing. Many firms in the cut-throat sector have since come and gone, but Liu said this year\'s burst of bankruptcies was unprecedented. Apart from weakening U.S. demand, companies are having to cope with tight credit and reduced tax rebates. Many are shedding staff to survive. Liu says he has reduced his own workforce by one fifth to around 400. Furniture companies around the globe have faced challenges in recent times. US-based Stanley Furniture posted a surprise second-quarter loss and announced this month it was cutting 350 jobs. Italy\'s Natuzzi SpA is relaunching itself with a new business plan as it deals with a strong euro, slowdown in North American and Europe, and low-cost competitors. Zhu Changling, vice-president of the China National Furniture Association, said US importers were cutting orders as America\'s housing crisis deepened, while Chinese factories were reluctant to accept the currency risk entailed by long-term orders because of the steadily rising yuan. Manufacturers are also having to absorb surging input costs, especially high oil and metal prices. Cheng Zhe, a director at Zhejiang Haozhonghao Health Product Co Ltd, said raw material and labour costs had risen 20 per cent and 10 per cent respectively so far this year, squeezing the plump 30 per cent profit margin the firm used to enjoy. His firm, which sells a range of orthopaedic chairs, sofas and beds, exports about 80 per cent of its production to the United States, the Middle East and neighbouring Asian nations. \"We companies are undertaking bigger risks while our profit margin is shrinking,\" Cheng grumbled. The gravity of the sector\'s ills is hard to judge from official figures. Furniture exports in the first six months of 2008 were still up 28.5 per cent in dollar terms from a year earlier, almost as strong as the 29.3 per cent gain in all of 2007. But a report to the cabinet by the Ministry of Commerce said the average profit margin of firms it surveys fell to only 1.1 per cent in the first five months from 3.2 per cent in the same period last year, a source said. The ministry recommended slowing the yuan\'s pace of appreciation and increasing rebates of value added tax (VAT) to exporters to prevent a sharp drop in overseas shipments. Chinese furniture makers are still very cautious about trying to pass on fast-rising costs to their customers. \"We are in dilemma,\" said Adwin\'s Liu. \"If we raise prices, our clients will leave. But if we don\'t, we are going to suffer.\" While his firm still hesitates, many others have already increased their prices. Some are losing export orders as a result and are having to focus more on the domestic market. Hou Xiaojing, a sales executive at Zhejiang Fudebao Furniture Co Ltd, which makes sofas, desks and beds, said one of its big customers had switched business to Vietnam, where prices are lower. But Wenzhou is nothing if not resilient.Reuters

Despite the pessimism in the furniture sector in China, I bet Q1 result will not deviate much from the \"guidance\" by Francis Lee: Business Times, 18 July 2008 - \"...On the other hand, China-based Man Wah Holdings close to doubled its market share in the US last year to US$80 million despite the sub-prime crisis, thanks to its mid-market strategy and lower operational costs. Some 43 per cent of its sales is contributed by the US. \'We have defied the market,\' said chief financial officer Francis Lee, adding that the firm has benefited from selling directly to large retailers such as Rooms-to-go and American Signature. The company used to sell to wholesale players, who tend to shop around for lower prices, he said. Mr Lee said with poor consumer sentiment in the US, it is capturing market share from the high-end sector. \'Because we target the mid-market, higher-end consumers are starting to look for more value-for money products and that\'s how we consolidate our position further,\' he said.\"

I was told FY09 Q1 result will be released on Friday during lunch break.

A respectable Q1 result: revenue 41% growth gross profit 90% growth net profit 65% growth