Sound Investment

greenrookie
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10 years 8 months ago #15807 by greenrookie

Replied by greenrookie on topic Sound Investment

Indeed, Rock

I am looking at indonesia plays closely. I will be patience with this, but I do see some value begining to emerge:

In order of preference:
Lippomall
Sinarmas Land
First Reit

I already owned some goldern agri and lippomall shares. Will accumulate more lippo if it hit my targets, as for sinarmas land, I am still digging, but like what I see so far.

You watching anything in particular?

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Rock
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10 years 7 months ago #15817 by Rock

Replied by Rock on topic Sound Investment

Greenrookie,
I am also looking at Firstreit & Lippomall for yield, both yield above 7% begain to look attractive. Sarin is a good growth stock which I am waiting for better entry level. At this point of time I am in no hurry. I believe more opportunities ahead, needs patient.

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lotustpsll
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10 years 7 months ago #15818 by lotustpsll

Replied by lotustpsll on topic Sound Investment

Hi,
Am also attracted by the yields but just a word of caution on currency risk - rupiah is falling sharply. I think there is still some way to go.

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Rock
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10 years 7 months ago #15840 by Rock

Replied by Rock on topic Sound Investment

STI has fallen 10% to 3084 since May 22 when FED Chairman first hinted of QE tapering.

Yet CORDLIFE & STRACO are both near it's peak and both are my core holding. Both stocks are proven to be very good defensive stocks.

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greenrookie
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10 years 7 months ago #15876 by greenrookie

Replied by greenrookie on topic Sound Investment

What kind of investors are you?

STI has corrected 11%, Reits retreated more, and indonesia property plays more than 30%

Which of the following best described how you feel?

1) Oh no, should I sell now and buy back later, gosh I should have sell earlier?

2) Which counter's selling is overdone? How will tapering, syrian conflict, currency weakness affect its business?

If your answer is 1), you are panicking when the market goes down, you should ask yourself do you really have a sound plan to invest in the long term.

Lippomall has fallen more than 30%, is it a value buy now? Will it goes lower?

It is a value buy, but no one knows if it will go lower, the lower the better for accumulation

They will be affected by interest rate hike, but only at 2015, and the effect on DPU if interest increase to 2%, in my opinon should happen in 2015 earliest. the increase in fiance cost is only 3 million, and will hardly create a dent on its DPU, now compared this to the fall in price.

Gearing will increase as valuation of properties will decrease, but kopikat from VBs share a link from MAS that reits will not need to do anything if their gearing level is breach due to revaluation of properties. So 1 risk down, maybe less money to raise through loans for acquisitions.

currency fall, will increase finance cost since the loans payable is s$, but look at the fall in currency and calculate impact on DPU, roughly at 15% drop in currency will cause a less than 5% drop in income distributable. I think the fall is excessive. Have accumulated more. not a buy call, you can wait a higher MOS

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Rock
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10 years 7 months ago #15888 by Rock

Replied by Rock on topic Sound Investment

The market will expect bumpy ride.

Firstly market is awaiting Fed to addresses the tapering time-line for QE3

Secondly uncertainty looms with the potential of some US intervention in Syria

Emotions take a toll on us in financial matters and it makes us commit stupid mistakes. In a falling market, we might become paralysed by fear and make illogically low estimates of the intrinsic value of a business or even fail to take advantage of any bargains. That’s where the wish list can help.

When markets start pulling back, that SHOPPING-LIST of shares can be used to override our fears as all we have to do now is exercise a little DISCIPLINE to make purchases as we can be confident that our analysis of various businesses was done in largely the best mental state we can be in.

If we’ve done so, then we’re likely well prepared for a bear market to start scooping up bargains when we spot them. But for those who have come unprepared, it’s not the end of the world.

Knowing that FEAR might impede our judgement goes a long way in improving our analysis even in fearful investing-climates. Besides, there’s always the next pullback to look forward. MARKETS NEVER MOVE IN A LINEAR FASHION. They go up, and then they come down and the cycle repeats. Stay calm and cherry-pick when bargain opportunties arises.

God Bless

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