buysellhold july.23



Singapore Airlines

Delivers record high FY24 core net profit


■ FY3/24 core net profit was essentially within expectations at just 0.7% less than our forecast. SIA declared a 38 Scts final DPS, as we had expected.

■ The shares will trade ex-div on 1 Aug 2024, with payment on 21 Aug; this will support our Hold rating although we forecast a weaker outlook for SIA.

■ We have a slightly higher TP of S$6.78, still based on CY24F P/BV of 1.2x (2 s.d. above mean), due to various housekeeping adjustments.



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2H: stronger EBIT, weaker associates


■ We preview 2HFY3/24F core net profit at S$1.10bn (+5% yoy), with stronger EBIT weighed by weaker associate profits.

■ Our monthly mobile price checks show that pricing has begun to increase in Australia, while Singapore has not yet seen meaningful improvement.

■ Possibility of returning excess cash to shareholders should cap downside, we think. Reiterate Add with an unchanged SOP-based TP of S$2.84.



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Grab Holdings

Riding the tourism wave


■ Grab’s 1Q24 GMV (+3% qoq, 19% yoy) and adj. EBITDA (+77% qoq) beat estimates, showing sequential growth despite the weaker seasonality.

■ Grab looks to capitalise on the regional tourism recovery given tourists’ high propensity to spend across its offerings (ride-hailing, food and delivery).

■ Grab lifted its FY24F adj. EBITDA guidance to US$250m-270m and expects 240bp upside to its Deliveries margin in the medium term. Stay Add.



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Singapore Banking Monthly

Fee income the driver


 April’s 3M-SORA was up 1bp MoM to 3.65% and 1bp lower than the 1Q24 average. Nonetheless, the 3M-SORA rose by 5bps YoY. 3M-HIBOR was down 16bps MoM to 4.54%, reversing the increase of 2bps in March. 



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Thai Beverage PLC

Beer turning fresh


 Results were within expectations. 1H24 revenue and PATMI were at 50%/53% of our FY24e forecasts. Margins are ahead of expectations, but associate profit fell 83% YoY on weaker property sales and higher taxes. 


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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

FY24: Results In Line; Expect Moderating But Decent Performance In FY25


SIA’s FY24 headline net profit of S$2.67b (+24% yoy) was in line with our expectations at 101% of our forecast. FY24’s final DPS of 38 S cents was slightly above our projection. We expect SIA’s earnings to go downhill in the next two years, driven by pax and cargo yield moderation as competition catches up, but still meaningfully above prepandemic levels with SIA’s strengthened market leading position. Maintain HOLD on SIA, with a slightly higher target price of S$6.35, based on 1.18x FY25F P/B. 



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