Excerpts from DBS Research report
|Key summary points
• FY20 net profit (excl exceptionals) rose to S$13.8m from S$0.01m in FY19
• Peak Residence and Opus Bay look set for launch in 1H21
• Maintain BUY with slightly higher TP of S$0.46
Core FY20 results ahead despite disruptions from COVID-19
- FY20 earnings rose 77.7% y-o-y to S$59.0m as a result of a fair value gain of S$45.2m. Stripping out this gain, Tuan Sing would have recorded net profit of S$13.8m (FY19: S$0.01m)
- The hotel investments business reported a loss before tax and fair value changes of S$17.0m in FY20. The segment owns 2 hotels in Australia and was hurt by low occupancies as a result of interstate and international border closures in Australia.
- Still, the property business saw a pickup due to higher occupancies at 18 Robinson and sales of Mont Botanik Residence.
- Gultech continued to see good growth with profit before tax and fair value changes (PBTFV) rising 13.3% y-o-y to S$24.7m. Gultech was able to capture orders during the initial COVID-19 closures in China.
- Net-debt equity improved to 1.01, helped by the classification of borrowings associated with the sale of Robinson Point.
Property business set to rise led by Peak. The 90-unit Peak Residence was originally slated for launch in 2020 but was delayed due to COVID-19. We now believe the property could be launched in 1H21 and estimate that Tuan Sing could fetch sales of c.S$190m from the project. In addition, occupancies at Tuan Sing’s commercial properties appear to be improving. 18 Robinson recorded better occupancies in FY20 while media reports have reported that a key tenant at Hyatt Regency Perth had completed an expansion. Overall, we are forecasting property segment’s PBTFV to more than double to S$44.5m in FY21F.
Outlook for Australian hotels improving. The hotel investments business, which owns both Grand Hyatt Melbourne and Hyatt Regency Perth, was the main drag on Tuan Sing’s performance in FY20. While the COVID-19 situation remains uncertain in Australia given that vaccination efforts are only just beginning, interstate travel restrictions to Melbourne have been relaxed partially and Grand Hyatt Melbourne has reopened since November 2020. On the other hand, Hyatt Regency Perth has served as a quarantine facility since March 2020 and its occupancies have been partially supported by the government. For FY21F, we are forecasting occupancies to range between 50% - 70% and for the segment to avoid a loss compared to the S$17.0 loss before tax and FV change recorded in FY20.
In the longer term, barring a full sale of GulTech, we see these dividend payments becoming a recurring feature and potentially contributing to Tuan Sing’s dividends or share buybacks.
Notably, the dividend from GulTech is already more than the S$7.1m that Tuan Sing is paying out for FY20.
Operationally, GulTech is primed to benefit from higher demand for printed circuit boards as China’s integrated circuit production continues its charge up. As a result, we have penciled in an earnings growth of c.10% for FY21F.
Opus Bay project buoyed by Indonesia’s omnibus law. Indonesia’s new omnibus law could boost demand for Tuan Sing’s Batam Opus Bay project. A slew of measures including a relaxation in foreign ownership rules have been announced to attract investments. While details on the project have been scarce, the project is expected to launch in 1H21 and could deliver a further boost to the property business given Tuan Sing’s 125-ha land exposure in the project.
Reduced net debt-equity is reassuring. Tuan Sing’s net debt-equity decreased to 1.0x as at end-FY20, the lowest level since 1Q17 as borrowings attributed to Robinson Point were classified as held for sale. A completion of the Robinson Point sale could further improve Tuan Sing’s net debt-equity with some of the cash proceeds possibly being used to repay debt. Historically, Tuan Sing’s share price has shown an inverse relationship with borrowing levels and so a lower debt level could possibly boost share price.
Maintain BUY with slightly higher SOTP-based TP of S$0.46. We have raised FY21F earnings by c.286% mainly due to the recognition of a gain on sale of Robinson Point and projected improved performances across all of Tuan Sing’s business segments.
Our TP is also higher as we applied a lower discount to RNAV of 60% (prev: 65%), in line with the observation of a narrowing in discount to RNAV of property names in Singapore.
At a PNAV of 0.3x, we believe Tuan Sing offers compelling value. Indeed, the current share price appears to be at a strong support level with the Group having performed share buybacks around this price consistently.
Full report here.