Translated by Andrew Vanburen from: 避免投資視盲 設定到價響鬧裝置 (中文翻譯, 請閱讀下面)
HOW OFTEN do we watch our money disappear through the cracks during a catchy but crackpot craze?
And how many of us have safeguards like “internal price clocks” in place to protect our investments? Not enough of us.
One night not too long ago, in a city that will remain unnamed, four armed thugs shot a cop dead, which set off a citywide dragnet to find the suspects.
A plainclothes police detective named Miguel happened across the suspects and promptly gave chase.
However, the unlucky sleuth managed to get tangled in a coil of barbed wire installed by the police to cordon off the area.
Not long after, several uniformed policemen arrived on the scene.
But they suddenly cut short their chase of the fleeing suspects, surrounded the ensnared detective, and began flailing at him with their nightsticks.
For in fact they had mistaken Miguel, their brother in arms, as one of those accused of killing their fellow officer.
All of their anger and pent-up rage was taken out on Miguel via a savage revenge-fueled assault.
At the same time, another plainclothes officer named Kenny saw the true suspects across the coils of barbed wire, leapt over the barrier, and quickly apprehended the intended target.
Meanwhile, Miguel lay seriously injured. The officers present suddenly realized their mistake, and were devastated by their overkill.
You may be asking yourselves at this point... What does this crimefighting miscue of catastrophic proportions have to do with the price of tea in China?
Or better yet, how on earth can it inform more intelligent and profit-oriented decisions in the chaotic capital markets of today?
Simple. Before jumping on a “sure bet” recommendation, make sure to initially identify its intrinsic value and redeeming qualities.
In other words, it is highly advisable to first establish a positive ID of the destination of your hard-earned money before committing it to the “beatdown” basket.
Because once you are locked into a certain “sure bet,” you can bet your bottom dollar that if you hitched your wagon to the wrong target, you will have more than your reputation to answer for.
Just ask the short-sighted policemen who bloodied their batons pummeling the wrong killer.
We can learn alot about scouting out fat bottom lines from the the thin blue line.
That is, seasoned and smart policemen will always act with due diligence and extreme caution before pulling out their billy clubs -- let alone their sidearms.
Likewise, in the world of share investing, nothing prevents rash action like a well-established "internal price clock" to keep us from succumbing to mob-rules behavior.
Good companies lecture on the need for due diligence. This should also describe successful investors.
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最後肯尼捉到匪徒，卻差點一齊收監。因為在米高被打案的聆訊中，肯尼供稱不見軍裝打人，甚至無見到米高。肯尼被認定作偽證扯貓尾，雖然最終不用坐牢，仍被革職。無人相信一個警察，會完全不見身旁發生的事，除了兩個大學教授：Chabris和Simons。兩人進行「選擇性注意」實驗，已有十年時間。大家也可一試，Youtube關鍵詞：selective attention test。在此先不談實驗情節，方便大家進行。實驗結果，是一半人會對明顯、但沒預期會出現的事物，全然視而不見。
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