| CGS CIMB |
UOB KAYHIAN |
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Property Devt & Invt All eyes on take-up rates
■ Private home prices surged in 1H18; sales/launch volume off to a slower start so far this year. ■ Good sell-through rates and fast asset turn are sector catalysts. ■ Office and hospitality sectors continue to look good. ■ Developers are trading at attractive valuations. Our top picks are UOL, CIT, CCT and CDREIT. Maintain Overweight.
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Another Round Of Cooling Measures
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| MAYBANK KIM ENG | OCBC SECURITIES |
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Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) Homecoming, and a placement risk
First acquisition in S’pore in four years; Prefer MINT MLT’s SGD778m purchase of five logistics properties possibly signals its homecoming and industrial sector recovery. While near-term tenancy risk rises, MLT’s growing logistics ambition suggests longer-term upside from expiring leases. How the deal will be funded is still unclear – we see risk of a placement as it will take time to divest SGD200m of low-yielding assets to free up its balance sheet. As such, this funding gap could create an overhang. We prefer MINT (BUY, TP SGD2.25) for its stronger balance sheet and DPU growth profile.
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Singapore Residential Sector: Sledgehammer to kill a fly
Last evening, the Singapore Government announced that it would raise ABSD and tighten LTV limits, with developers also having to pay an additional non-remittable ABSD on residential properties for housing development. These cooling measures were not in our base case, given that private residential prices have only started to increase by less than 10% since the 2Q17 trough, while the smaller rate of QoQ increase in 2Q18 appeared to have dispelled concerns about a tighter regulatory environment. While we previously argued that the positive outlook presented a buying opportunity in the midst of the sector correction, we no longer believe this to be the case. Referencing the previous comprehensive package of cooling measures introduced in Jan 2013, we note that the FSTREH declined by up to ~28% after approximately 37 months (Feb 2016), with the next day following the announcement closing at -3.0%. Coupled with the current macro uncertainties, near-term sentiment would be highly likely to sour. We expect shares prices of local property developers to see an immediate negative knee-jerk reaction. We downgrade our Singapore residential sector rating from Overweight to NEUTRAL, and will be reviewing our recommendations of the developers under our coverage.
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PHILLIP SECURITIES |
DBS VICKERS |
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Singapore Coal Monthly Demand from China still robust SINGAPORE | MINING | SECTOR UPDATE
China imports more coal China imports surged: According to Reuters, China’s seaborne coal imports surged by 14% YoY in 1H18, estimating to reach 126.6mn tonnes. Indonesia became the biggest source of imports by delivering 61.8mn tonnes of coal, a jump of 33.5% YoY. Meanwhile, the imported coal from Australia remained flat at 42.8mn tonnes during the period (1H17: 42.6mn tonnes).
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Singapore REITs Keeping our ears on the ground
• Thai investors return to a “uniquely Singapore” 3-day tour • Positive feedback on the ground; turning into a landlords' market soon • Time to re-enter into selective REITs with growth
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Check out our compilation of Target Prices