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wisesteward wrote: Hello, i am new here but i do own shares of AMA. Hope you don't mind me asking newbie questions, as i do admit that i have much to learn in the world of finance and investments.
Your observations (and my queries in blue):
"Very good news for both AMA & TAW shareholders.
1. TAW has announced it will spin off all its other assets in order to focus on Bald Hill Project. Great exploration potential at Bald Hill awaits ---> good value to be created for AMA and TAW shareholders.
2. The assets go to new public company (“SpinCo”) 85% of whose shares will be distributed by way of in‐specie to Tawana’s shareholders. Would that mean that existing shareholders who bought Tawana shares on the ASX would now own shares of Spinco? yes. So they are considered private investors of Spinco, given that the entity is yet to be listed? yesWouldn't that be an illiquid situation for them as they are unable to sell Spinco shares? yes but not likely to be permanent. guess is that Spinco will be listed at some point.
3. SpinCo will find its own value in the market and have a dedicated mgt to grow the business. Surely there is a tremendous opportunity for multibagger in its stock as there are 2 lithium projects (Yallari and Cowan). Sounds exciting. But surely this depends on how much Spinco would be listed on the public exchange of choice? yes, it's an event at an unknown date As well, what would be the value of the Spinco shares issued to existing Tawana shareholders be based on? 85% of shares of Spinco will be distributed to TAW shareholders; Value is an unknown since the shares will not be listed yet
4. AMA has market cap of about $208 million, reflecting only Bald Hill.
Thus, TAW market cap of $222 m accords only $14 m to its other assets. Again, whether it is according $14m to the other assets held under Spinco depends on how much they issue the Spinco shares to Tawana shareholders. Logically,
i would guess that the higher the value accorded to Spinco, the more "undervalued"
it would be for Tawana (taking AMA share prices as the reference" - which might be a good situation for Tawana. Of course, this assumes that AMA shares hold up, and also it is a efficient market valuation of the bald hill project, yes?.the value of TAW is up to ASX market to fix from day to day; the value of Spinco is an unknown quantity until listed
5. AMA & TAW would have only Bald Hill on their books --> paves the way for an equal marriage. What do you mean here? Anticipate that AMA and Tawana would form one company? there is widespread speculation of a merger of AMA and TAW. See forum posts in Australia.What are the possible ways of that happening and possible implications?A market cap of $450 million will certainly hit the radar screens of fund managers globally! It can only go up ! When more resources are defined thru exploration, $1 Billion market cap is the first milestone in the near term! Wouldn't fund managers have more considerations other than market cap of an underlying stock in order to decide its investment decisions? sure other factors like the attractiveness of the business, the valuaton, etc. But when the market cap is too small, no matter how cheap, fund managers can't get past their mandate to invest in companies of a certain minimum market capIf so, there would be many shares that fit that criterion, no?"
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